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Wildfire forecasting

From a two-day notebook to a thirty-minute pipeline

36 hrs under 30 min

Forecast time, before and after the rebuild.

Built with

  • Step Functions
  • Lambda
  • EventBridge
  • S3
  • Terraform
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The situation

The science was sound and the model was proven. The problem was everything around it. The forecast ran as one long notebook on one machine, so a failure anywhere meant starting over, and nobody could run two forecasts at once. A 36-hour turnaround made it impossible to offer customers anything close to a daily product.

What I did

  • Broke the notebook into discrete processing stages and mapped their real data dependencies, which were fewer than anyone assumed.
  • Rebuilt the pipeline on Step Functions for orchestration, Lambda for the processing stages, and EventBridge for scheduling, so stages run in parallel and a failed stage retries on its own.
  • Moved intermediate data to S3 with a layout the scientists could still open and inspect directly.
  • Delivered the whole thing as Terraform, with the scientists able to deploy a change to a stage without touching infrastructure.

The outcome

Forecasts now complete in under 30 minutes and multiple regions can run at once. That changed what the company could sell: a daily forecast instead of a weekly one. The team owns the pipeline and has extended it since without me.